Utah will need more than 840,000 new homes over the next 30 years, but without addressing the factors that constrain our housing market, we will come up nearly 235,000 homes short—a shortage that will increase prices and impact quality of life for new and long-time residents alike

Over the last year, Envision Utah has worked under the direction of the Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity to analyze Utah’s housing capacity. Envision Utah partnered with RCLCO Real Estate Consultants and worked with representatives from local and state government, developers, and other stakeholders, alongside experts in water, sewer, and transportation.

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executive summary

Our analysis primarily considered three markets where housing can be built: (1) within existing cities and towns, known as infill markets, (2) on previously vacant or agricultural land, called greenfield markets, or (3) near public transportation infrastructure, also known as transit-adjacent markets.

Infill

In infill markets, new housing is limited primarily by planning and zoning and by our readiness to redevelop underutilized, underperforming, or outdated sites and parcels into housing. We are likely to use up all the land that is available for housing in infill markets before 2055. But even then, infill markets could fall short of meeting market demand. 

Greenfield

Housing in greenfield markets will likely make up at least half of new homes by 2055. But housing in greenfield markets is constrained in several important ways. 

  • Planned transportation infrastructure may struggle to connect people to existing job centers and amenities as growth expands further into greenfield areas. 

  • Water availability may begin to limit housing growth in some regions without additional conservation measures as competition for water increases. 

  • Planned sewer treatment capacity is insufficient to meet rapid housing growth in some areas. 

  • Planned housing capacity in greenfield areas is lower than market demand.

Transit-Adjacent

Opportunities to build new housing in transit-adjacent markets are limited by the availability of development-ready transit-adjacent land.  Housing demand in transit-adjacent markets exceeds the amount of land likely to become available for redevelopment in areas near stations with rapid access to urban job centers. In transit-adjacent markets
outside of more urbanized areas, the biggest challenge will be aligning the timing and design of transit-adjacent growth in ways that will maximize the benefits of public transportation investments.

Combined, these barriers threaten Utah’s ability to build enough housing to support families and sustain future prosperity. Fortunately, these constraints are not absolute–we can use water and land more efficiently, invest in needed infrastructure, and align policies with market needs to secure a future where Utahns have opportunities to live, work, and play in quality communities. 

If not addressed, barriers to housing creation could result in a housing shortage of 235,000 units–196,000 units in the Wasatch Front–by 2055, representing a quarter of future housing needs.

*For decades, Envision Utah and other partners have brought Utahns together to explore growth choices and create a vision for the future. From all this and more, we know that Utahns desire a variety of housing options in greenfield, infill, and transit-adjacent markets. The target distribution shown here is approximately aligned with these visions.

Click here to download a one-pager with the Executive Summary for this report.