WHAT “tHE BIG ONE” COULD LOOK LIKE AND HOW WE SHOULD PREPARE

The Wasatch Front is overdue to experience something even more devastating and life-altering than the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hard to imagine, right? But it was also hard to imagine on March 16, 2020—when our state went into a two-week soft lockdown—that we’d be here, over a year later, still dealing with the devastation and ongoing impacts of COVID-19. Needless to say, it’s been tough.

Thousands of Utahns have lost their jobs, cultural and community routines have been interrupted or halted altogether, and we’ve been unable to do one of the things that makes us human—spending time with the people we love. And the greatest loss of all: over three thousand deaths from COVID-19 in Utah alone.

And yet, just two days after that announcement, we were all shaken awake (literally) and reminded that we are potentially sitting on one of the most devastating natural disasters in U.S. history. You probably know it as “The Big One.”

Utah is due for a big earthquake—the Wasatch Fault has a forty-three percent chance of experiencing a 6.75 or greater magnitude earthquake in the next fifty years. Experts project that such an event would be among the deadliest disasters in our nation’s history.

But, just as the full scope of the COVID-19 pandemic was hard to imagine, so is the timeline and devastation of what “The Big One” would actually look like. So, we broke it down for you below.

To summarize, that’s months without the systems we depend on to keep our communities functioning at the most basic level, thousands of families and individuals displaced, more than 60 percent of structures in our valley damaged, and a greater loss of life in one day than in the last sixteen months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding the risk

To understand why we would experience such magnitude of devastation, we need to consider the unique factors of Utah’s natural climate and geography which put us as at risk.

Nearly 80 percent of Utah’s population lives along the Wasatch Front, which is also known as the Wasatch Fault Zone (WFZ)—one of the longest and most active normal faults in the world. (1) The danger of living in the WFZ is compounded by the fact we are also living on an old lakebed.

Much of the development along the Wasatch Front, like our homes and businesses, is built on saturated sediment left behind by Lake Bonneville, which is prone to liquefaction during an earthquake. Liquefaction is exactly what it sounds like: a fault ruptures, the ground shakes, that saturated sediment our homes are built on liquefies.

While “liquid ground” is certainly dangerous for any structure, it’s especially dangerous for the “unreinforced masonry buildings” (URMs) that hundreds of thousands of us live and work in. These buildings are constructed of brick or block without reinforcing steel (picture a classic Sugarhouse brick bungalow). While our building code hasn’t allowed this kind of construction since the 1970s, we still have more than 140,000 of them that were built before then, making up 20 percent of our occupied buildings. URMs will be one of the primary sources of deaths and injuries in the event of an earthquake. At the same time, even many newer buildings will be damaged and uninhabitable or unusable. Hundreds of thousands of people will be without shelter.

And that’s not to mention the impact on our infrastructure. Bridges and roads will be impassable, power and gas will be unavailable for most of us, and more than a million people could be without water or sewer for many months.

While the extent of these dangers is not widely known, most Utahns do understand the risks of our geography. However, similar to the initial sentiment around COVID-19, Utahns remain optimistic about how bad an earthquake in our valley would actually be.

Envision Utah conducted a survey last year where 71 percent of Utahns indicated they think life will be back to normal following a major earthquake in six months or less. But, with over 30 million tons of debris to clean, so many injured to attend to, and so many buildings and so much infrastructure to inspect and repair or rebuild, the response to restoring our critical systems like power, water, and sewer, to get Utahns back to their normal way of life, will be a slow burn.

It’s a terrifying situation. And while it’s easy to focus on the immediate emotional losses, it’s important to note the long-range effects that this slow burn will have on our economy.

In the past when major natural disasters have occurred, many places in the world and in the U.S. have taken years, even decades, to recover, with economies suffering long-term. Consider New Orleans’s economy after the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The total damages from Hurricane Katrina were $135 billion, and in the months following the storm, New Orleans lost over half of its population as survivors moved to other places for housing and jobs. Many who left for other cities didn’t return, meaning thousands of jobs disappeared.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Utah has experienced economic hardship. All things considered though, our economy has remained resilient and is doing quite well (we actually ended 2020 with positive job growth!). And Utah’s gross domestic product is expected to grow this year by 6.2 percent. (2)

Home offices and make-shift home offices allowed companies and organizations to be flexible, continue operations, and keep many of our workers employed during and after the lockdown. Most Utahns even had a Zoom meeting or two just on the first day of working from home. Very few will be so lucky following the earthquake.

With no power, no internet, and extensive damage to both homes and offices, flexible office jobs will be just as at-risk as restaurant and on-site workers during the long and slow recovery response. Utah’s rate of unemployment will skyrocket, impacting thousands of individuals and families, regardless of where they live or who they work for. People without jobs or water—or even a home—are very likely to leave Utah, many of them never to return.

In other words, an earthquake of the predicted magnitude would cripple our state’s economy for much, much longer than the pandemic has. Utah’s Chapter of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute estimated the short-term economic losses alone will total $33.2 billion from building-related damage, income loss, and life-line related damages. (3) The long-term economic loss will be much greater with lasting damage to our economy and way of life. We’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars.

Should the earthquake actually happen tomorrow, the timeline above is unfortunately a very accurate representation of what will happen. However, the uncertainty of when it will happen gives us a window of opportunity to improve Utah’s resiliency. And we’re working on it. 

Improving resiliency

In 2020 Envision Utah formally embarked on a multi-year disaster resilience effort to engage stakeholders and the public to create momentum for improved resilience.

A resilient state is one which can survive, adapt, and eventually thrive following a catastrophe. It can quickly recover from disastrous events without disrupting long-term economic health and residents’ quality of life. It’s not an easy task. Making Utah resilient to disasters will require improving our homes, buildings, and infrastructure, so fewer people are killed or injured, more homes and buildings survive, infrastructure and utilities can be quickly restored, and the economy is not so disrupted as to permanently damage Utah’s future.

The primary objectives of Envision Utah’s disaster resilience project are to increase coordination and build public awareness and political will to further the following strategies:

1. Reduce the number of people who would be killed, injured, or displaced in a disaster.

2. Reduce the disruption and damage a disaster would cause and the time needed to recover (restore utilities, rebuild structures, reopen businesses, etc.); and

3. Reduce the number of people who must leave Utah (e.g. lost job, no shelter, no water/sewer, etc.).

FEMA and the Utah Division of Emergency Management (UDEM) are also working with local stakeholders to understand the risks, mitigate damage, and coordinate a robust response effort following the event.

FEMA will soon be releasing a Resource Phasing Plan, which provides an in-depth response plan detailing what relief teams and supplies will arrive, and when, after an earthquake (as seen in the timeline).

While we work on statewide resilience as an organization, there are several steps you can take as an individual to ensure you’re doing everything you can to prepare for “The Big One.”

KNOW WHAT TO DO DURING THE EARTHQUAKE

Similar to most natural disasters, mitigating risk before an earthquake provides you with the best chance of getting through the event as safely as possible. The most important thing you can do is make sure that you and your household are prepared.

We all remember climbing under our desks during earthquake drills in school, but it’s important to freshen up on what to do during the shaking. There are detailed resources available from the Red Cross, Salt Lake City Government, and other organizations, but here’s a short list:

• Seek cover—think under a desk, table, or doorframe, and out of the way of heavy falling objects.

• Protect your head.

• If outside, move to an area clear of trees, powerlines, buildings, etc.

• If driving, pull over, stop, and set your parking brake.

HAVE A PLAN FOR DIRECTLY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE

Ensure that you—and every person living in your household—are well informed and have an emergency plan in place for when the earthquake does hit. This plan should include a few critical components: designate a safe meeting place accessible to your family, especially by foot as roads may be inoperable, and practice meeting there every now and then (check out S.A.F.E Neighborhoods to find the elementary school which will act as your neighborhood’s reunification hub →), memorize an out-of-state contact, build you 96-hour kit (check out a list of what to include →), and stay informed.

Thinking through what you and your family will do without utilities for weeks, or even months, is a helpful practice to ensure you’ve completed the steps above and that you’re as prepared as you can be.

For further information on how to plan for the 48 hours following the earthquake click here →

KNOW YOUR HOME

The house or building you’re living in might require seismic upgrades to be safer in the event of a high magnitude earthquake, especially if you’re living in an URM or older construction. Check your home for cracks in the foundation and damage to the interior and exterior walls, or have a professional come to evaluate your home.

If financially able, there are several local companies and contractors who specialize in seismic retrofitting in Utah to ensure that built homes or new homes are seismically secure. Check out this list of top-rated earthquake retrofitting contractors in Salt Lake City →

Salt Lake City also has a program in place called Fix the Bricks that helps residents make seismic improvements to their URMs using funding from the federal pre-disaster mitigation grant. Register for the Fix the Bricks program to be put on the waitlist and have your home evaluated. Click here to learn more about Fix the Bricks and register your home →

If you’re buying a new home, be diligent in selecting a home that’s up to seismic code and check to see how close it is to a Faultline and liquefaction zones. Click here for the Utah Geological Survey Hazards Map →

Earthquake insurance is also an important element of making sure “The Big One” doesn’t ruin you financially.

GET YOUR COMMUNITY INVOLVED

You can take steps to ensure your neighborhood and community are prepared as well. Most cities have specific procedures in place following a natural disaster, so check your city’s website for an emergency preparedness plan. These plans should include everything for preparedness, response, and recovery services in your community.

Utah hosts an annual shakeout drill known as the Great Utah ShakeOut. Check your city’s website to see how they will be participating in the drill and share the information with neighbors and others in your community.

Reach out to your City Council Members if you have any questions or concerns about your community’s preparedness plan. Click here to learn more about organizing your neighborhood →

SUPPORT STATEWIDE EFFORTS

We want to emphasize that while it’s critical to be prepared for the hours and days following a high magnitude earthquake, ensuring long-term, state-wide resiliency will require going beyond individual preparation. Here’s what we can do as a state:

• Ensure essential buildings (e.g., school, government, and medical) are seismically sound.

• Perform regular inspections and upgrades to essential utilities such as water mains, power lines, etc. to increase the capacity to withstand the shaking.

• Apply for more federal grants to help aid the financial burden of retrofitting old structures.

• Upgrade the building code to a higher seismic standard, particularly for essential facilities such as hospitals, schools, and government buildings.

See below for more resources and information on earthquake preparedness and disaster resilience. Stay tuned for upcoming blogs where we’ll update you on our project. We’ll keep you up to date on how we’re helping Utah prepare to survive the short- and long-term impacts of “The Big One.”

References

(1) https://ugspub.nr.utah.gov/publications/public_information/pi-40.pdf
(2) https://www.sltrib.com/news/2021/03/21/how-utahs-economy-bounced/
(3) https://dem.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2015/03/RS1058_EERI_SLC_EQ_Scenario.pdf

Additional Resources

• Envision Utah Earthquake Fact Sheet & Definitions

• Be Ready Utah Earthquakes

• Envision Utah Disaster Resilience

• FEMA Utah Earthquake and Aftershocks

• The American Red Cross in Utah